Results from Popular Conservatism's second opinion panel survey reveal party members current views on leadership contenders, their campaigns and the wider parliamentary party.

The results from Popular Conservatism’s second opinion panel survey reveal strengthening support for Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick but party members have little confidence in MPs putting the right candidates into the final.

In our second survey we asked respondents about their preference for the next leader of the party, their confidence in Tory MPs to put the right candidates into the final two and the respondents’ policy priorities.

Key findings:

Robert Jenrick (28.4%) and Kemi Badenoch (28.2%) have increased their support amongst Conservative Party members (from 23.4% and 24.2% respectively two weeks previously) whilst Priti Patel remains in a solid third place on 17.4%. As support coalesces, the proportion of members who are undecided has fallen from almost a third to 15.8%.

Mel Stride, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly all polled under 5% of members surveyed.

In campaign cut-through terms, the clear leader so far is Robert Jenrick. When asked to put aside their own choice for the next Conservative leader and tell us which candidate they think has run the best campaign so far, 34.0% chose Robert Jenrick, with Kemi Badenoch second (10.4%) and Priti Patel third (9.2%). 

When asked how satisfied respondents were with each of the six leadership campaigns, three candidates scored positive net satisfaction levels: Robert Jenrick (+43.0%), Priti Patel (+13.8%) and Kemi Badenoch (8.4%). 

When asked to take all the campaigns together, 36.8% were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with ideas strategies and policies put forward in the contest so far, compared to just 22.1% who were satisfied or very satisfied. 

An overwhelming majority of respondents (76%) have little or no confidence in Tory MPs putting the right two final candidates to the membership.

Immigration is the top policy priority (54.7%) amongst our panelists, with the economy in second place (23.9%) far ahead of environment/carbon net zero, education, law and order/ policing, foreign affairs/ defence and health which all scored below 7% for first preference. 

Mark Littlewood, Director of Popular Conservatism, said:

“There’s clearly everything still to play for in the Conservative leadership election with a large number of undecided voters and no certainty at all about who will make it to the run off.

“The next leader will need to address the disconnect between the grassroots and the Parliamentary party - there is very little confidence amongst the membership that the MPs will select the best two candidates for the final ballot.

“Immigration is overwhelmingly the main policy concern of the party members we surveyed and it’s clear that the candidates will need a compelling policy in this area in order to win over the party faithful.

“It’s also clear that the campaign has yet to really ignite. Robert Jenrick is seen, by some margin, to have run the best campaign so far but there’s obviously still a long way to go.”

ENDS

Scroll down to view key findings in each area:

Click here to view the summary of the survey (table format)

The survey was conducted across August 15th to 19th 2024. Survey sample: 516 Conservative Party members.