"Models in themselves are not the problem, but they are being abused to stifle innovative policies"

Telegraph: 12th April 2024: Fraser Nelson [Spectator Editor] explains his concerns about the creeping dominance of the OBR

"If I told you that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was one of the most powerful forces in the country, linked to everything from high tax to high migration... You might be tempted to tiptoe away quietly, suspecting I’ll soon start talking about the “deep state” and the “Davos elite”. 

Liz Truss’s memoir is published next week, with plenty to say about the OBR’s role in her downfall. Her critics have their response ready: she’s just nuts. A conspiracy theorist... who does not, in short, deserve to be listened to. I take a different view...

The OBR has become a super-modeller, set to work on everything.. Any significant spending plan by ministers is sent for its assessment. Reforms tend to live or die by its verdict. 

The problem, of course, is not with the modellers but the way they are used. They’re sent into areas that just can’t be predicted with any degree of certainty: health, welfare, border control...

[Truss] was... right about the technocratic morass into which the British government has sunk and her own party’s role in its creation."

FULL ARTICLE HERE