PopCon survey shows nearly two-thirds of its opinion panel believe that UK voters will return a Conservative majority or Conservative-led minority government at the next general election - but there is 'much work still to be done'.

In our latest survey (22nd to 27th November) we asked our panel to tell us what they thought the result of the next general election would be.

Only 4% think there will be an outright Labour majority after the next election and less than 10% expect a Labour-led minority government/coalition. By contrast 41% expect a Conservative minority government/coalition and nearly a quarter (23%) expect an outright Conservative majority. 7% think that another party will lead a minority (or indeed majority) government.

EARLY PERFORMANCE OF THE NEW CONSERVATIVE LEADER

In our survey we also asked the panel how impressed they had been with Kemi Badenoch’s first few weeks as Conservative party leader. 

One third of those surveyed say it's too early to say. Of those who have an opinion - two thirds have been impressed with the new leader so far (24% very impressed; 42% fairly impressed), whilst a third have not been impressed (24% fairly unimpressed; 10% very unimpressed).

Kemi has certainly done well with our panel on the Farm Tax issue. She ranks joint top with Nigel Farage as the political leader who has performed best on the issue to date. And a very decisive 94% of our panel agree with Kemi's decision to publicly pledge to reverse the Farm Tax changes at the “very first opportunity”

WHERE SHOULD THE NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEAD FOCUS HER ATTENTION?

When asked what area of activity they most wanted Kemi Badenoch to focus on between now and February, a full one third of our panel want the new Conservative party leader to get on with developing clear policy outlines and priorities, with some 28% prioritising holding the government to account. 

Nearly one in five want internal party reform of the Conservative Party to top Kemi's 'to-do' list.

We followed up on this area by asking our panellists to explain in their own words where they hoped to see action from Kemi. Immigration is mentioned a great deal. There is concern about Kemi's previous stance on immigration and (as a result of this) a strong desire to see clear and hard policy commitment on this from her as soon as possible.

Net Zero targets are also a concern of many. Again there is widespread desire to see Kemi confirm that she will cancel the Conservative party commitment to the current net zero targets at the earliest possible stage.

Both of the above were mentioned by many as necessary given Reform's progress over the summer. Our panel are clear that Kemi cannot 'sit back and wait' for voter anger with the Labour Party to revive Conservative Party support. 

Our panel clearly understand that it may take a while for the new leader to settle in, but we note there is a lot of comment and question on why internal party reform is not being seen to proceed. There are also a good number of requests for both the Conservative Party and Reform UK 'to start talking' (see below). 

REUNITE THE RIGHT

We asked our panel to tell us about what sort of relationship they think is best for the Conservative Party and Reform UK. It's noteworthy that around half of our panel think that an electoral pact or full merger is the most desirable outcome. By contrast, just 15% think there should be NO relationship between the two parties.

12% - Merger

38% - Electoral alliance

28% - Just build better relationship 

15% - No relationship

  7% - Too early to say / don't know

NOTES

The survey was completed by 460 members of the PopCon Opinion including Conservative party members and non-members across the period 22nd to 27th November, 2024. View full questions and results in tabulated form HERE.

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