PopCon has today launched a new economic forecasting agency to compete with the Office for Budget Responsibility. 

Press release: 1st April 2025:

The Popular Conservatism group (PopCon) has today launched a new economic forecasting agency to compete with the Office for Budget Responsibility. 

Mark Littlewood, PopCon’s Director, said: 

“Predicting economic growth over a five-year-cycle is an enormously complex task requiring incredible expertise. Given the government’s reliance on such forecasts to make tax and spending decisions running into many billions of pounds, it is vital that a variety of different econometric approaches are deployed. 

“This is why we have launched Popular Forecasts which has now developed three different models to forecast GDP growth in the UK from this financial year through to the end of the decade. 

"The first model is called the 'GHE system'. This assumes that we take insufficient account of negative events in both the short and medium term which are likely to hinder economic growth. Under this model, we take the OBR’s projections and reduce them by 0.4% of GDP for the current year and 0.3% for subsequent years. This renders a growth prediction of 0.6% for this year, followed by 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.4% and then 1.5%.

"The second model is known as the 'NHADC projection'. Under this model, we assume that Britain’s GDP growth will always be somewhere between 0.5% and 2.5% and simply generate a completely random number between these two extremes. The NHADC model has projected 0.7% growth this year, then 2.0% in 2026, followed by 1.5%, 1.4%, and finally 0.8% in 2029.

“The third model is based on the concept that modest improvements in Britain’s high performing industries have a positive knock-on effect in the wider economy, albeit with a meaningful time lag of approximately 5 years. 

“This 'PLFS model' predicts GDP growth this year of 1.4%, followed by 1.3% growth in the next three years and then finally a return to 1.4% growth in 2029/30. 

“The calculations are made by looking at the number of Premier League goals scored in a season, calculating the square root of this number and then dividing that number by 25. This then predicts the growth rate in five years’ time. 

“There is little doubt that the Premier League is one of the country’s best performing industries over the past couple of decades. Further, it is clear that goals scored in Premier League matches have a positive effect on the wider economy. Fans of a team which scores a goal show an increased propensity to purchase alcoholic drinks, providing a much needed boost to the hospitality industry. Furthermore, if a player scores a substantial number of goals, this drives demand for replica shirts with his name and number imprinted on the back, generating jobs and profit in the textile sector. Additionally, it has been observed that fans of a goal-scoring team are prone to shout and scream at the moment a goal is scored. This boosts demand for throat lozenges and will therefore increase the turnover of pharmaceutical companies.” 

"I have managed to create these economic forecasting models in under thirty minutes at a cost to the taxpayer of zero. You are all very welcome.

"In contrast, the OBR has over 50 staff and a budget of about £5.5m per annum. They shouldn’t just be more accurate than my three projections – they should be expected to be enormously and consistently more accurate.

"Let’s see who wins the forecasting game between now and the end of 2029, the OBR, the GHE, the NHADC, or the PLFS"

ENDS

Notes for Editors

1. GHE stands for “glass half empty”.

2. NHADC stands for “nobody has a damned clue”.

3. PLFS stands for "Premier League Fiscal Stimulus". 

4. OBR predicts growth of 1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028 and 1.8% in 2029.