Today’s economic figures make for predictably grim reading. The UK economy flatlined as a whole over the course of January and - given the population of the country continues to rise – this means GDP per capita is falling. On top of the government’s growth-suppressing economic strategy, the impact on oil prices as a consequence of the war in Iran now makes a recession a distinct possibility, even a likelihood.

The accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. For all sorts of reasons, this is an artificial and perhaps even unhelpful method of calculation. If we found ourselves in a cycle in which the UK economy always contracted measurably in the spring and autumn while experiencing microscopic uplifts in the summer and winter, we would never officially be in a recession, but we would be on a pathway of permanent decline and even ruin. In contrast, six months of modest retreat (say, growth rates of -0.1%) would be almost indistinguishable from the economy flatlining at a permanent rate of zero. Nevertheless, in the former case everyone would be entitled to shout “recession” at full volume and in the latter case stories of “sluggish” performance would struggle to attract anything like as much media attention – despite the realities being almost identical.

In response to the disappointing January data, Rachel Reeves issued a predictably impenetrable and feeble statement of word salad littered with untruths. "Our economic plan is the right one, but I know there is more to do,” she said, "In an uncertain world, we are building a stronger and more secure economy by cutting the cost of living, cutting national debt and creating the conditions for growth to make all parts of the country better off." If anyone can explain to me what Labour’s economic plan actually is, please email me. Similarly, I can’t find any examples of policy making Britain’s economy stronger and more secure.

The cost of living is rising – as is the national debt. Which policies are “creating the conditions for growth”?

I can find none.

Of course, PopCon is not a think tank focused on economics. Instead, our aim is to agitate for a recasting of the UK constitution and legal system to the sort of state it was in prior to the Blair era. However, I am now persuaded that this fundamental reset of our governmental machinery is a prerequisite for any return to a growing economy being the norm.

Apologists for the Labour government are keen to compare us to other major European economies, try and find some statistics to suggest that we are performing marginally better than them and then imply that everything is rosy. But this is a bit like celebrating impoverishment because it’s better than starvation. Western Europe isn’t yet a basket case but it seems hell bent on becoming one. It shouldn’t be a benchmark for our aspirations.

Across the pond in the USA, growth has been clipping along nicely at between 2% and 3% since the ending of the pandemic. On a long-run trajectory, Americans will be about twice as rich as they are today in around three decades’ time whereas Brits will be no richer at all.

We can’t and shouldn’t believe that we can simply map the US constitutional system onto our own country and it would be a disaster if we tried. But I think there may be some lessons from the other side of the Atlantic about how we can escape from our present situation of there being a permanent ratchet effect of raising taxes, increasing spending and dialling up regulation. If we continue down this path, we will be lucky to keep GDP growth at even 0%. Tweaks and fiddles will no longer do – a dismantling of the quangocratic state is now a necessity.

I hope you may be able to join me on Monday to join an online conversation with Douglas Carswell, the former Conservative and UKIP MP, to help us plot a way to Britain’s constitutional and economic redemption. Douglas now runs a major think tank in Mississippi - often cited as the poorest US state, which now boasts a higher GDP per capita than the UK - a sobering reality check! 

Keep the flag of freedom flying!