In his latest column, PopCon Director, Mark Littlewood, argues that many more [Conservative] topline positions can be laid out across a wide range of areas - even if the detail follows much later. That seems to me to be a decent strategy to start the process of rebuilding popular support.

You could be forgiven for thinking there’s yet another general election campaign underway. Opinion polls are being spewed out on what feels like a daily basis – that is a very unusual frequency for “peacetime”.

Perhaps it is the rise of Reform UK which has led to such an interest in current national voting intentions, despite the fact that we are unlikely to return to the polls for another four years at least. Generally speaking, most pollsters are tending to put Labour, the Conservatives and Reform around about neck and neck on about 25% of the vote each.

If the data are accurate, this represents quite a shift since last July’s election. Reform have leapt forward about 10%, Labour has declined by nearly 10% and the Conservatives have more or less held steady.

When the polls aren’t going your way, politicians find it tempting to insist that the only poll that matters is the one on polling day itself. In a narrow sense, that is of course true. Support for different parties can fluctuate wildly over the course of a Parliament. Margaret Thatcher came back from dire poll ratings on two occasions to secure landslide victories. More recently, the Tories went from scoring just 9% of the vote in a nationwide election to securing a Commons majority just six months later in December 2019.

However, polls do shape the national mood, determine momentum and enormously impact morale. The issue I am interested in working out is what is the electoral floor and ceiling for each of the parties. Even if the present polls are not great reading for the Tories, does Kemi Badenoch have the potential to attract more floating voters or defectors than Nigel Farage?

To help understand the present electoral landscape – especially on the right of centre – on Tuesday at 7pm I’ll be joined for our latest PopConversation by James Frayne, polling supremo and Director of Public First. Make sure you register here for an invaluable insight into why the parties find themselves where they are and what they need to do from here to improve their support.

My own take is that the Conservatives need to carve out some clear positions on issues of the day even if detailed policy can wait until much closer to the next election. I’d argue that the jury is now in on issues such as our membership of ECHR and our commitment to carbon net zero. You can – and I think, should - take a stance or position on both of these issues (and many others) without pretending that you have a complete policy prospectus on either immigration or the environment.

Earlier this week, Reform UK set out some policy detail around environmental issues. Their position on carbon net zero has been pretty clear and unambiguous – they believe (as I do) that the 2050 target is economically ruinous and produces virtually no environmental benefit.

However, I was surprised that their policy approach seems to rely largely on tax hikes alongside a number of state mandates and prohibitions. Perhaps the Conservatives should adopt a similar overall position on CNZ (opposing the 2050 target), but adopt a more market-based approach? The point is that you don’t need to have everything worked out in painstaking detail in order to unveil some general signposts.

The Conservatives have now unveiled an immigration policy of sorts (rather contradicting Kemi’s view that we would have to wait a year or two to hear any specifics). Oddly though, I felt it delved into rather too much detail about the exact number of years you’d have to wait before being eligible for citizenship or the right to permanently remain in the UK.

The basic position – that you’d need to be a net contributor rather than a net beneficiary to stay in the UK – seemed to me a sound one. It could have been “launched” without the additional technical details which rather detracted from the simple, key, core message.

I would have thought that many more topline positions can be laid out across a wide range of areas - even if the detail follows much later. That seems to me to be a decent strategy to start the process of rebuilding popular support.

Keep the flag of freedom flying.