In his latest column, PopCon Director, Mark Littlewood, says it's time to be bold. 

The drip drip of daily political news is so dire for the Labour government that you almost think they are in the dying days of their reign, not a mere four months into it.

Labour’s problems are now so numerous and diverse that it is tricky to provide a snappy diagnosis of their failures so far.

First has to be their pledge to be “laser-focused” on growth only to pursue an economic agenda almost guaranteed to achieve the opposite. Labour’s fiscal policy is based on transferring resources from the productive, private sector to the unproductive state sector. The “no strings” deals with their trade union friends is a straightforward reward for failure. Already income per capita appears to be falling.

Second was the rather pompous pledge to return politics to being in “public service”. The idea here was that the Tories were on the make, but a new, super-ethical mode of behaviour would suddenly sweep through Westminster. That lasted mere days of contact with reality - once the litany of paid-for clothing and spectacles emerged. Serious questions also remain about the Chancellor being less than wholly honest on her CV.

Third has been the jaw-dropping lack of political judgement. Conservatives should always look seriously at opportunities to make savings or iron out loopholes in the tax rulebook. But it seems odd that winter fuel allowance wasn’t simply wrapped into the state pension (thereby ensuring that the more affluent pay tax on it). Also, has the all-out war with the farming community really been worth it for the sake of around £500m in revenue?

What hasn’t yet happened has been an outbreak of internecine warfare amongst Labour MPs. That is surely only a matter of time.

The impact of the government’s travails on the polls – and on actual voting patterns – has been marked.   After a devastating defeat in July, the Conservatives are now about level pegging with Labour in national voting intention. Reform has also gained support. Local council by-elections have resulted in meaningful Tory gains, but again Reform are a meaningful and powerful presence. Interestingly, a drop off in Labour support does not appear to have much helped the Greens or the Liberal Democrats.

If Labour continues to shed votes – which I think is likely – the question arises as to who will be the main beneficiary. If both the Conservatives and Reform continue to benefit at roughly the current rate, calls for some sort of rapprochement on the centre-right will continue to grow.

If you place any store by Elon Musk’s powers of political forecasting, he seems to think that the established political parties in Britain will take a battering at the next election – either pointing to Reform making huge strides forward or perhaps some new force emerging.

My sense is that we will now enter a period of electoral shadow boxing between the Conservatives and Reform, with both attempting to show growing strength in the polls, in by-elections and at local council level. Perhaps a complete reboot of the Conservative Party naturally leads to Reformers (re)joining the Tories. But if public anger at the political establishment continues to grow and the Conservatives simply look like “a safe pair of hands who aren’t quite as bad as the other lot” then the ceiling on Reform support could be very high indeed.

That’s why I think it’s vital for Conservatives to channel growing public disillusionment into a radical and unambiguous plan to completely rewire how politics in Britain operates. Equivocal positions on carbon net zero, immigration and judicial (and police) overreach are unlikely to cut it. We don’t need to be reckless for the sake of it, but craven caution is likely to result in a permanent place in the political graveyard.

It's time to be bold.

Keep that flag of freedom flying high