PopCon Director, Mark Littlewood, gives his take on the Conservative Party Conference. "Slowly, but surely, I think we are making some progress. But there’s still a long way to go." 

I have a few takeaways from this week’s Conservative conference in Manchester.

The first is that next year they should move Think Tent into the main hall for our events (which were typically heaving) and shift most Shadow Cabinet ministers’ speeches (often sparsely attended) into one of the marquees!

Thanks for all who attended our discussions on the future of the right and how to save democracy. If you weren’t able to be there and want to see what you missed them, click HERE and HERE. 

The second is that Conservative high command will be pleased by quite a few things that didn’t happen. Despite persistent rumours to the contrary, no current or recent MP defected to Reform (although if you want to join me – on Tuesday evening - in a conversation with Adam Holloway, a former Tory MP who has already made the move, click here for further details). Additionally, although virtually everyone I spoke to was pretty concerned about the plight of the Conservative Party and its woeful poll ratings, there wasn’t much mutiny in the Manchester air.

Third – and most noticeably – on Wednesday, Kemi Badenoch had her best day yet as leader of the Conservative Party. Most felt it was the best speech of the entire conference season (admittedly, that’s not an especially high bar!). A good number believed it to be the best Tory leader’s speech since the days of Margaret Thatcher.

I watched the speech on television. I always tend to do so, partly out of laziness and partly because I want to see the speech as the public experience it rather than as the activists do.

I was broadly pleased by much of what I heard. It had all the right buzz words about aspiration, patriotism, enterprise and such like. And, finally, the Tory party has some actual policies too. Removing stamp duty from primary residences was the rabbit pulled from the metaphorical hat. But there was also a commitment to remove welfare support from those who are swinging the lead, to cut back the size of the civil service by a third, to deport 150,000 illegal immigrants each year and to use savings in public expenditure in equal measure to reduce the deficit and support economic growth (I hope the latter part of this pledge means tax cuts not a raft of misdirected government programmes. We will see).

So, the Conservatives now have some shiny new policies. Some glittering baubles. The initial idea was to announce no specific policies until at least 2027. This plan has now collided with political reality and, wisely and quietly, been ditched. Activists knocking on doors and Conservative spokesmen on the media will now have something discernible to point to – and pledge – rather than just looking bewildered that anyone is still willing to speak to them!

And yet, and yet…I still have some serious and nagging doubts. It’s all very well having an array of sparkling baubles. But you need a tree to hang them on. They need to be part of an overall, attractive display, not just a range of disparate eye-catching ornaments.

I don’t think the Conservatives have yet erected the tree.

In the political vernacular of our times, this is called lacking a “narrative”. At the moment, if there is a discernible Conservative narrative, it’s a rather thin one.

Essentially, the message is “we are under new management and are returning to conservative principles.”

But why would this be believed? The old management promised to be the party of a stronger economy, tougher border control, lower taxes and responsible government spending. What we got was the opposite. Are the public likely to believe that Kemi and the shadow cabinet will behave differently next time? Why would they?

Nigel Farage opened his GB News programme on Wednesday evening by saying, “So, the Conservatives are now the party of low taxes and fiscal responsibility? Give me a break!” He is, of course, a political opponent – but no doubt expressed the opinion of millions of centre-right voters in that pithy sentence.

To have any real chance of a fresh hearing from the electorate the Conservatives need to go beyond admitting that they got things wrong in government. That is a statement of the bleeding obvious. They need to explain why this was the case.

As I discussed with David Starkey at the PopCon fringe meeting, the root cause of the problem was that the Tories decided from the outset to try and tame the dragon of the Blairite state. This dragon consists of an overbearing judiciary, a plethora of interlinked quangos and a typically obstructive bureaucracy.

If you want to seek to tame a dragon - and then to ride it - you need to keep the dragon suitably fed and watered. You must also make sure that you don’t anger it in any way. This is the real story behind the Tories’ failure in government. This is what led to higher taxes, bigger deficits, more state spending, tighter regulation, open borders and a two-tier justice system. It’s why the electorate are somewhere on the spectrum between disillusioned and utterly furious. It’s why voters are reaching out not for a system which is better engineered but for one that is wholly rebooted.

The aim, of course, should have been to slay the dragon not to befriend it.

The failure to realise this was an enormous strategic misjudgement. That doesn’t necessarily mean it is an unforgivable misjudgement.

However, for it to be forgiven, it will need to be fully acknowledged and expertly explained.

This is the enormous obstacle – thus far largely untackled – on any remotely conceivable route back to power for the Conservatives.

Spelling out this disastrous mistake and ensuring the next government – of whatever stripe - doesn’t repeat it is the reason PopCon exists.

Slowly, but surely, I think we are making some progress. But there’s still a long way to go.

Thanks for your support in helping us to get there. Keep the flag of freedom flying.