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Just when you think the chaos engulfing the Labour government can’t get any worse, it suddenly dials up by several more notches.
We now have in prospect a Parliamentary by-election in Makerfield which promises to be the weirdest and most consequential in living memory.
The working assumption is that Labour’s National Executive Committee will allow Andy Burnham to seek the party’s nomination. Their case for blocking him from running in Gorton and Denton earlier this year (it would mean a costly election for the Manchester mayoralty which could be won by Reform) is apparently now going to be cast aside.
In a high-stakes gamble, the King of the North is going to try and get back into Parliament within the next six or seven weeks.
Before considering the possible result, it’s worth reflecting on the contorted – almost indecipherable – political narrative that will dominate the campaign.
If Burnham prevails, the working assumption is that he will swiftly trigger a leadership contest and will very likely topple Keir Starmer. Labour voters will essentially be asked to vote for a political assassin.
What will Andy Burnham say about his intentions? Will he make them clear? Will he refer to them elliptically? Will he expect the Prime Minister to come and campaign for him? One presumes that Starmer and his dwindling band of loyalists will secretly want Burnham to lose. Might that mean only minimal logistical and financial support is provided by Labour HQ?
Reform have already alighted on their campaign slogan – “Vote Reform – Make Burnham History”. But they will also face a tricky dilemma – is the best way to get rid of Starmer to vote for the turquoise army or, bizarrely, to vote Labour?
I suspect a strong trend in Reform’s favour will be a backlash due to the way the good people of Makerfield have been treated. The departing MP, Josh Simons, is not ill, dead, dying, or in prison. The election has been manufactured to try and allow Labour to find a way out of its near intractable internal difficulties. I suspect a large tranche of the electorate will be unwilling to oblige them.
At the last General Election, Labour polled 45% of the vote. Reform were within striking distance on 32%, the Tories way back on 11%, the LibDems took 7% and the Greens on a mere 4%. On paper, this looks a seat Reform should win – especially given the party’s strong performance in the area on May 7th.
Nevertheless, Burnham is gambling that his personal popularity will buck the trend. He is indeed about the only politician in the country with a positive approval rating. There was some polling evidence indicating that had he been allowed to run in Gorton and Denton, he’d have won.
Nevertheless, it really is a question of win big or go home. If Burnham prevails, he will have shown he can take on Reform in a way that Starmer simply can’t.
If he loses then – impossible as it sounds – Labour will be in an even greater mess than it is now. A leadership election will still probably be triggered but whoever emerges as Prime Minister will forever be plagued by the reality that the party really wanted Andy Burnham but that the voters of Makerfield declined to facilitate his candidacy. Although I have been sceptical of the prospect until now, it could also set us on a pathway to an early General Election.
Given what is at stake, I think there is a strong case for the Conservatives to stand aside and urge their supporters to vote for the candidate most likely to beat Labour (almost certainly the Reform nominee). The by-election will not really be about who you want to represent you in Parliament – although that may play its part – but rather about whether you approve of the Labour government triggering elections to try and dig themselves out of an almighty hole. In such circumstances – faced with an unusual, important and binary question – it seems to me both sensible and explicable to withdraw the Tory candidate.
As soon as I suggested this on social media, Sir Simon Clarke, the former Conservative MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland and now head honcho at the Onward think tank asked if I’d apply the same logic in reverse for the upcoming Aberdeen South by-election (where the Conservatives seem, on paper, best positioned to defeat the SNP). It’s a fair question – has the time come for a wider non-aggression agreement between the Tories and Reform UK? Despite the best efforts of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Dan Hannan and others, neither party leadership seems remotely interested in even contemplating the idea at this stage.
Perhaps, just perhaps, there is an opportunity here for the Conservatives to make a unilateral gesture in the unique circumstances surrounding Makerfield. I think that would be a wise move. Bookmakers currently make Labour only very narrow favourites over Reform, so it potentially could be a decisive move too.
My fear, as opposed to my hope, is that Labour could be let off the hook here (especially if Restore choose to field a candidate) and an opportunity to hasten the demise of this dreadful government might be squandered.
Keep the flag of freedom flying!
WATCH Mark Littlewood and Andrew Allison discuss this on the PopCon PopCast.