Mark my words: Is there a pathway to recovery?

"I don’t know who has the harder task in building their way back to success – Manchester United or the Conservatives. Both look like they have a very long way to go."

Read the latest column from Mark Littlewood, Director of Popular Conservatism. 

 

In November of last year, a great British institution had fallen on tough times and was looking for fresh leadership. Having previously been a dominant force, this outfit had lost its way, lost its identity and had even become a bit of a joke. Many feared it would never again consistently win in an increasingly competitive field. Some wondered whether it could ever recover. I am, of course, talking about Ruben Amorim becoming the new manager of Manchester United.

My apologies to those of you who are not fans of association football, but I hope you can appreciate the analogy with the current challenges Kemi Badenoch faces as leader of the Conservatives.

Football clubs, like political parties, experience an ebb and flow in their fortunes. Sometimes they surge, sometimes they fall from colossal heights. Both football and politics are highly results-driven businesses and both can be brutal. A failure to live up to (often incredibly high) expectations can mean you are swiftly for the chop. In fact, over the past decade Premier League football clubs have changed their managers at about the same rate as the Tories have changed their leader.

New managers and new party leaders tend to inherit the captaincy of a troubled ship. Their predecessor has often left their post because they failed. Supporters are therefore willing to give the new broom a little time to tidy things up and turn things round. They might even be prepared to accept that results will get worse before they start to get better.

Arguably, this is exactly what is happening to Badenoch and Amorin. Manchester United fans – like most Tories – aren’t expecting immediate results. United finally finished 15th in this year’s Premier League, a truly woeful finish by their historical standards. They also failed to qualify for European football next season – meaning they are at risk of no longer being considered an elite club.

To be an elite political party in Britain, you need to be in the top two. That seems to be slipping from the Conservatives’ grasp. Maybe it’s a blip. Football clubs and political parties both go through periods of bad results before a reversion to the mean.

Supporters tend to be sanguine as long as they can see a plan and think it has a chance of working. Kemi’s approach is to take things slowly, calmly and methodically. The hope is that she will be able to attract voters with a bullet-proof, detailed plan in the due course of time. Having serious answers to complex questions in a world of fast-paced news and loud opinions is certainly a different approach. The question is whether it’s a winning one.

I don’t know who has the harder task in building their way back to success – Manchester United or the Conservatives. Both look like they have a very long way to go.

Keep the flag of freedom flying.