If, like Kemi Badenoch, you’ve had more than enough of “political psychodrama” then it might be a good idea to look away now.

The news that Andrew Gwynne MP has decided to leave the House of Commons on health grounds paves the way for what might end up being the most significant Parliamentary by-election in many years, perhaps even decades.

Gorton and Denton is a safe Labour seat – if such a thing actually exists anymore. It is also in the Manchester area and therefore an almost ideal part of the world for Andy Burnham to attempt to secure his return to Parliament.

The permutations and combinations of what happens from here are complicated and numerous.

It seems almost certain that the by-election will take place on May 7^th alongside the local elections (or at least alongside those that are still going ahead).

First, Burnham will have to decide if he wishes to be the Labour candidate. If he decides he doesn’t want to, it’s hard to see how he could get back into Parliament before the general election – no other seat is likely to come up that would be a better fit for him until then.

Second, if he does throw his hat into the ring, he will need to navigate his way around the internal procedures of the Labour Party and its NEC. Those loyal to Starmer will seek to block his candidature – they could do so on grounds which may well be confected. Either they could claim they don’t wish to miss an opportunity to make the Labour benches more “diverse” by limiting the pool of potential candidates to women (and I really don’t want to consider the sort of circumstances in which Andy Burnham might still seek to qualify under such restrictions!) or they could decline his application on the grounds that he is an incumbent mayor and they don’t wish to incur the expense (or, more likely, the political risk) of a fresh election across the whole of Manchester (which they could well lose).

If Burnham is blocked then my guess would be the public will view the move as yet another “party before country” gambit by the current government. On top of cancelling local elections (for a second year running) for millions of people and seeking to abolish jury trials due to an administrative backlog, this would provide fresh evidence that Labour is turning its back on the primacy of democracy.

If, however, in the infinitely more exciting (and psychodramatic) scenario in which Andy Burnham does run we will have a fascinating situation in which the electorate are likely to be faced with a multi-dimensional grid of tactical considerations. The official Labour candidate would, in effect, be running against the current Prime Minister and if you’re over-arching aim is to remove Starmer from office, there is – counter-intuitively – a strong case to vote for the Labour candidate not against him.

By the same logic, if you are a Starmer loyalist (do such people still exist?) then the logic would be to vote to ensure Burnham is defeated.

This then becomes even more complicated. Mapping the current polls onto the Gorton and Denton constituency (yes, I know, a million health warnings apply) suggests Reform are in a close second position and best placed to beat Labour. However, the Greens are also strongly positioned.

As the Caerphilly by-election showed, there is a cohort of left-leaning voters who are willing to vote tactically to try and stop Reform. But would they vote Labour to seek to do so or is the government now so unpopular that most voters on the left are only willing to switch tactically to a minor party such as Plaid Cymru or the Greens?

The Conservatives and the LibDems are polling in single digits in the seat. These voters will be ruthlessly targeted with arguments to switch to their second-choice party. But we might be down to a small, immovable hardcore here already – Tories and Liberals who just aren’t willing to be seduced by tactical considerations. There is also a reasonably measurable chunk of support for the Workers’ Party (8% at the last election) – might George Galloway be tempted to run in yet another by-election?

If Burnham is the Labour candidate and wins, a leadership election is quite likely to follow shortly thereafter. If he is stopped from being the candidate and Labour then loses, his reputation as “prince over the water” will be enhanced but his route to ever cross the water would be much harder to navigate.

If Reform were to win the seat, it would add to the narrative that the “real battle” in Britain is now between them and Labour. If the Greens somehow come through the middle, psephologists will be desperately searching for new algorithms to try and get a grip on what’s really happening in our chaotic multi-party system. I suppose it might also add to a new narrative that Reform are still some way away from being able to win a general election outright.

Whatever happens, this is a by-election like no other in recent times. The 80,000 or so voters in the constituency could make a decision with major long-term implications for our country.

Kemi may be right that the wider public are sick and tired of “psychodrama” in our politics. But I confess that I am not and I’ll be following this episode with great interest.

Keep the flag of freedom flying!