In his latest column, Mark Littlewood argues that it would be reckless for anyone to close down – or even narrow – any pathway to a right-of-centre victory.

There was much excitement in Conservative circles this week with the publication of a YouGov mega-poll showing the Tories would win more seats than Reform in a general election if one were held right now.

All the usual caveats apply. Despite fevered speculation in recent days, it looks like we are some considerable way away from an election being called. To get a good flavour of the state of public opinion, always look at a batch of recent polls rather than merely one (especially if the one tends to confirm your personal preferences).

Nevertheless, a year ago most polls were pointing to a Reform majority (projecting them as the largest party). YouGov’s MRP survey suggests the Conservatives would win 130 seats and Reform would be just behind on 123.

The results fit into the current “narrative” that Reform has been losing ground whilst Kemi Badenoch is edging her party back into contention.

Personally, I’m sceptical about the idea of “momentum” in electoral politics. I don’t think it follows that because you’ve had a good (or bad) few months, the next time period will be similar in nature. Politics is chaotic, unpredictable and – crucially – at the mercy of events. Sure, you can harm your prospects by diving headfirst into a bear trap (some consider Reform to be guilty of this over their recent funding issues) and you can help your chances by executing a well-thought-out and compelling communications strategy. All in all, though, there is as much alchemy as science in concocting a winning formula.

The real story of that YouGov poll is that an election today would almost certainly result in a left-wing government.

Of course, Labour would lose its overall majority but there would be more than enough LibDems, Greens and nationalists to get them over the finishing line. We would end up with an administration even further to the left and even more chaotic than the current one, hard though that is to imagine.

The right-of-centre therefore faces quite the dilemma and there are only a few pathways to victory.

One pathway is for either the Conservatives or Reform to knock out the other. A year ago, this shot appeared firmly on the board for Reform. Some polls suggested Reform’s support was about twice that of the Conservatives. Today, the two parties are fairly close to being neck and neck.

I have likened this – in an imperfect analogy – to being locked into a protracted FA Cup semi-final. In effect, the Tories and Reform are squaring up to each other before one of them emerges as the clear standard-bearer to take on Labour in the grand final. The metaphor doesn’t quite work because no party is formally eliminated from an election in the way a football club is removed from a cup competition. Nevertheless, if one party got itself somewhere into the 30s and the other was hovering around 10-15%, it would be broadly obvious who the key party of the Right was. In fact, in this scenario, the Right would be less divided than the Left.

An alternative suggestion – if Reform and the Conservatives both remain highly viable whilst neither looks like winning outright on their own – is some form of electoral arrangement or pact.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg is the leading public proponent of this avenue to electoral success. But many others mutter about it in hushed tones away from the bright lights of the media. Quite what form this could take remains open to discussion and when you dive into the details you can see the enormous problems involved in opening this Pandora’s box. Would there be candidates on a joint ticket? Even a joint manifesto? Or would the arrangement be more sotto voce – with one side “going easy” in seats where victory was only within reach of the other party? Would the deal be nationwide or just in select seats? Who would be PM if such an alliance secured a majority in the Commons?

Because the leaderships of both parties are emphatic that no such scenarios will even be entertained, all these questions remain firmly in the hypothetical pile.

An area that I think merits closer attention is whether voters will essentially force an electoral alliance themselves. At present, the bulk of voters haven’t thought in detail about the next general election and understandably so. They have lives to lead and it’s likely to be nearly three years away. The theory goes that in the white heat of a campaign the sizeable bloc of voters who are motivated by “getting the Left out” will size up the local circumstances in their seat and vote for whichever right-of-centre candidate is best placed to win. On the other side of the political ledger, this has been going on for years. A slice of diehards will stick with their first-choice party, but a good chunk of Labour, LibDem and Green voters will “lend” their vote to the likeliest left-wing candidate in their constituency. Perhaps right-leaning voters will begin to operate in the same way?

At present, the polling evidence is that this slice of the electorate isn’t especially attuned to acting in such a fashion. Reform voters seem more open to switching to a well-placed Tory than vice versa but, by and large, voters seem keen to 'stick to their lane'.

However, as economists are fond of pointing out, there is a big difference between stated preferences (that you’d volunteer to a pollster) and revealed preferences (how you actually behave).

The evidence from Parliamentary by-elections is that voters on the right are willing to switch to the best-placed right-wing challenger. In Gorton and Denton, Makerfield and Caerphilly, the Tory vote plunged to somewhere approaching zero. Reform didn’t win any of those seats but they were obviously much better positioned to do so. On the flip side, in Aberdeen South, the Tories blew away the SNP by doubling their vote to nearly 50%, with Reform only pulling in a modest 8.6%. Clearly, a swathe of Reformers were more than willing to back the Tory to stop the Scots Nats.

I think the leaders of both Reform and the Tories need to be mindful that voters themselves have a cunning way of bringing about the overall result they want.

In a scenario in which there is a right-of-centre majority but neither Reform nor the Conservatives are anywhere close to being able to form an administration alone, surely a coalition would be inevitable. Leading lights in both parties should think twice before saying anything that could make such a working relationship harder should such circumstances arise.

Politics can change rapidly. We are already in a wholly different party system from that of 2024 and by 2028 things could (and probably will) be radically altered compared to today’s “spot price”. However, there is a vast amount at stake at the next election and it would be reckless for anyone to close down – or even narrow – any pathway to a right-of-centre victory.

Keep the flag of freedom flying!