Our scribe reflects on the year past and hazards a look into the future
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Swift is pleased to observe that not only did Alfred Lord Tennyson accurately depict the 2024 General Election, he was roughly right in terms of Conservative candidates (365 stood).
Prof Curtice can rest easy, however: nearly 200 cavalryman returned from the valley of Death, whereas only 121 Conservative MPs survived the socialist batteries and their allies on right and left.
At least the Light Brigade were only fired on by the enemy. If the Conservative Party had been in charge on the day, most of the soldiers would have topped one another before they got near any old guns.
While we are in military mode, let Swift remind you of that army maxim: order, counter-order, disorder. To indicate that the date of the general election was going to be the autumn of last year and then plump without warning for July was the sole instance in politics Swift can recall of a successful ambush aimed at your own side.
And the last July election? 1945. Could that have been considered an omen, perhaps?
Honestly, it didn’t need the finger of God writing on the wall of Belshazzar’s feast to tell you that this election was going to go as well as Wayne Rooney’s managerial career.
And yet. The Good Book instructs us that sinners who repenteth are OK. But those that don’t can enjoy a comforting spa retreat in a lake of eternal fire and torment. Step forward Keir Starmer, whose claims to moderation and grown-up government turned out to be as convincing as Ed Davey’s paddleboarding skills. The Conservatives might have been rubbish under Rishi Sunak, but they were mere novices at trashing the economy compared to Rayner & Reeves, that well-known firm of funeral directors, currently embalming Britian in red tape and taxes.
So as he gazes into this Almanack for 2025, Old Swift discerns signs of hope. It’s been a rocky start for Kemi Badenoch but we can’t have another leadership election for while (or can we?), and by then she may have grown into the role. She might alternatively have accused Tyson Fury of spilling her pint in his local, of course, in which case we might need to think again.
There is much disquiet about the direction in which she will go. Ms Badenoch’s policy is, to quote a great former Tory Prime Minister, a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. What is going on inside the Saffron Walden bunker? Are we pushing imaginary armies around or getting ready for a proper battle?
So to Reform. To grow a movement based on many forms of resentment (immigration, housing, tax,etc.) is a (comparatively) easy task in our fractured nation: to sustain it into one where the members unite around a coherent programme – and one in which they have a say - is not, in Swift’s view, Farage’s strongest suit. Not impossible, mind. The momentum lies with the shock troops of Reform while the Conservative leadership slumbers.
Yet the Tories have been around a long time. They have adapted, mutated and trimmed where necessary, always around a set of fixed core values. To help them do so again, dear friends, is PopCon’s task. Thank you for your help and support.
May Swift take this opportunity to wish you all a good 2025. He is hopeful that it will bring better things for our grand old party than the year just gone. We will see.