Head of Campaigns, Andrew Allison (standing in for Mark Littlewood), writes about Starmer's resignation, Burnham's likely coronation and what could happen next.
It has been quite a week. Not only has Keir Starmer announced his departure from Number 10, it was also the tenth anniversary of 17.4 million people voting to leave the EU (and the tenth anniversary of David Cameron announcing his resignation as Prime Minister). In grimmer news, former DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, was convicted for multiple child sex abuse charges and Peter Murrell, the former SNP Chief Executive and estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon, was sentenced to more than five years behind bars for fraud.
During his resignation statement outside Number 10, Starmer announced a timetable for replacing him as leader of the Labour Party. Members of the Parliamentary Labour Party have from 9th to 15th July to nominate any of their fellow Labour MPs. A hustings is also planned for 13th July. Organisations affiliated to the Labour Party - including, of course, trade unions - have from 6.00 pm on 15th July to 6.00 pm on 16th July to make their nominations from those already nominated by MPs.
If Andy Burnham is the only candidate nominated by MPs, it is expected that a special conference to announce the result will take place on Friday 17th July - the first day of the recess. It will mean that he and his ministers will not face any Parliamentary scrutiny until 1st September.
One would think that Burnham must be happy with the timetable, but although he may be keen on a coronation, amazingly (despite plotting his return for months), he wanted more time to prepare. If he isn't ready now, when will he be? And this, perhaps, is a major warning sign that Burnham is not the "Prince over the Water" that most people in the Labour Party think he is.
The Peter Principle states that organisations promote people who are good at their jobs until they reach their ‘level of incompetence’. Harsh, but true, particularly in politics.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester directly controls a budget of over £3 billion. This includes funding for public transport (the Bee Network), the Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service, economic regeneration, and adult skills/apprenticeship training. Although the Mayor does not have "blank cheque" freedom to spend the money as he sees fit, because of the "single pot" funding model in Greater Manchester, he did have significant spending freedom.
Andy Burnham's job was to basically spend money in the most popular way possible, fly the flag for Greater Manchester, and if he didn't have enough money, blame the Government. I am not saying that the role does not have its challenges, but even mediocre politicians ought to be able to fulfil it in a reasonably competent way.
The skills required to be Prime Minister are on an altogether different level, as Keir Starmer has found out to his cost.
Other than bleating on about change (whatever that means), what will Prime Minister Burnham actually do? When he was questioned recently about fiscal rules, he didn't appear to know what they were. He has said previously that the country should not be in hock to the bond markets. There is a simple solution: stop borrowing money, but Burnham isn't going to announce a plan to balance the books - something that no Government has achieved in the last 25 years.
After he was sworn in on Monday, Burnham posed for a photograph with hundreds of Labour MPs in Westminster Hall. I thought it was in poor taste, just a matter of hours after Keir Starmer announced his resignation, but it is clear that the so-called "King of the North" is regarded by many Labour MPs as their Messiah. He is, though, going to suffer from the same problems that Keir Starmer has for the past two years.
Last year, Starmer and Reeves couldn't even get modest welfare reforms through Parliament and Burnham will have the same problem if he chooses to attempt something similar. And although Ed Miliband appears to be no longer Burnham's top pick for Chancellor, anyone who replaces Rachel Reeves is going to run into the same problems as she did.
It is said that Britain is becoming ungovernable and we have certainly gone through Prime Ministers at a rapid rate of knots over the last ten years. My youngest son was born on 19th June 2016 and he is about to be on his seventh Prime Minister. The seventh Prime Minister of my lifetime was Gordon Brown when I was 36!
Tory MPs got a taste for regicide in the last Parliament and there is no doubt that if you depose your leader once, it is easier the second time. My best guess is that Burnham will have a honeymoon over the summer when he is not facing Parliamentary scrutiny. He will get a hero's welcome at the Labour Party Conference and then reality will sink in. Any poll bounce that he received in the middle of July will evaporate, which will make an early general election less likely, but not impossible. Opposition parties need to start selecting candidates soon to avoid being caught with their trousers down.
Will Burnham last the course? That's the $64,000 question. Judging by the recent form of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, RIshi Sunak, and Keir Starmer, I wouldn't bet against him joining the other nine former Prime Ministers at the Cenotaph inside two years.
Keep fighting for freedom!