Andrew Allison, Head of Campaigns (standing in for Mark Littlewood) takes a look at the three Parliamentary by-elections which took place yesterday. When will Andy Burnham make his move to unseat Keir Starmer? 

There were three Parliamentary by-elections yesterday.  Although it is unusual to have that many on a single day, the last time that happened was relatively recently on 20th July 2023 when voters in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Somerton & Frome, and Selby & Ainsty went to the polls after the resignations of Boris Johnson, David Warburton and Nigel Adams respectively.

I am going to start with Aberdeen South, which was a fantastic result for the Conservative Party. The last time the Conservatives won a by-election in Scotland was in 1967. In his weekly column for the Daily Sceptic, Mark Littlewood thought that the Tories could prevail, and if you followed his betting advice you would be a few quid richer. But the Conservatives not only won the seat, they sprinted over the line, beating the SNP with a majority of over 6,000. Many congratulations to the new Conservative MP, Douglas Lumsden.

The other Scottish by-election in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was more predictable. The SNP won the seat in 2024 with a slender majority of 859 over Labour. The seat was held yesterday by the SNP with a majority of over 5,000, with the Conservatives in second place, and Reform in third. Labour's vote collapsed by over 18% compared to two years ago.

The main spotlight, of course, was on Makerfield. I never thought that Andy Burnham would lose. He is popular in Greater Manchester and when you factor in that a vote for him was a vote to remove Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, the result was, in my mind, obvious. What surprised me, though, was the size of his victory. On a high turnout - higher than it was at the 2024 general election, Burnham beat Reform by over 20 percentage points. 

But we know that yesterday's result was not an end in itself. As I write, Andy Burnham is addressing supporters in his new constituency. In his typical word salad way, he is promising real change. We all know that the real change he wants is a change in 10 Downing Street, but he didn't mention that, although Louise Haigh most certainly did and is already measuring up the curtains in Number 10 for him!

The question is: when is Burnham going to make his move? My hunch is that it will be sooner rather than later. He is currently the man of the moment. He has stardust in Labour circles. Much better for him to strike whilst the iron's hot than wait for him to lose his sparkle.

His team is saying that he has enough support in the Parliamentary Labour Party to get onto the ballot. I don't doubt that for one moment; however, he would prefer a coronation - preferably before the summer recess in a month's time. 

Keir Starmer on the other hand has already come out of the blocks and has stated that he will stand in any leadership election contest. I think that despite his bravado, Starmer will eventually see that the writing is on the wall and whether it's just Burnham standing against him or two or three others, he is facing certain defeat.