PopCon Director, Mark Littlewood, looks forward to the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester. "The media will no doubt portray the next few days as make or break for Kemi’s leadership. But I think it’s rather more existential than that - it’s now pretty much make or break for whether the Conservative Party matters at all."

Here’s the good news (for partisan Tories):

The Conservatives are a serious party. Fit for government. Rebuilding slowly and surely. No major fireworks. No big headlines. Thinking. Calmly. Methodically.

So, the party has spent about a year reviewing things - from carbon net zero to membership of the ECHR - and can therefore be very confident in their conclusions.  The party has “reached out” and now feels -  finally, after such endeavours - it has the ammunition it needs.

Here’s the bad news (For partisan Tories):

Guess what?

It might well simply turn out that Nigel Farage was right all along.

Yes, it seems plausible that’s what the Conservative Party year-long policy analysis might now show.

Sure, Kemi’s team might have a more plausible list of numbers in an XL spreadsheet than Nigel’s. But - in rough and ready terms - we may simply conclude that Farage has been right for donkey's years and we Tories now (upon considered reflection) agree with him.

If this is the case, it now places the Conservative Party in a very difficult position.

It has spent the last year behaving more like a think tank than as an electorally serious political party. Support has fallen from an already perilous 24% in last year’s election to perhaps as low as 14% today.

To shed that much support from a very low floor takes either a special level of political mismanagement or - if one is being more generous - might be a case of having to take several strides backwards before being able to take a few steps forward.

Perhaps this slow and steady approach is the way back to credibility. But I think it’s just as possible that it could be a lesson in how great institutions die. It might be that the Conservatives can unveil a set of finely tuned specific policy positions but have lost sight of how to make them hum as a catchy tune. Hitting exactly the right notes is a precise and scientific challenge but they also need to add up to a compelling symphony.

My own view is that the electorate will not be interested in listening to the Tories unless the leadership can explain WHY things typically went so wrong from 2010 to 2024. It wasn’t a lack of detailed policy reviews, it was something far more fundamental. 

Just saying “we are under new management” won’t suffice. The gear shift the Conservatives require in order to bounce back isn’t a matter of cosmetics or needing more competent leadership. The party need to understand - and explain - how the overall structures of government are so wanting (not merely that the precise policies pursued were not optimal). The electorate is beginning to cry out - not for a change in management - but for a change in system.

The media will no doubt portray the next few days as make or break for Kemi’s leadership. But I think it’s rather more existential than that - it’s now pretty much make or break for whether the Conservative Party matters at all.

It’s too much to expect any political party to make the political weather in a few days at a conference. But I do think a major test for the Conservative leadership is to show that they at least understand how the political weather has changed so dramatically in just one year.

Let’s see if they can clear that hurdle in Manchester.

Keep the flag of freedom flying!