In his latest column, PopCon Director Mark Littlewood says that he has "started to think of the UK more as a club than a mere landmass. Clubs tend to have membership fees and they also have rules. To acquire and retain membership, you need to pay the former and abide by the latter. In broad terms, we should think about immigration in the same way. A financial contribution is a prerequisite, but you also need to “fit in”."
So, there you have it. The official prediction of net annual migration to the end of June 2023 has been revised upwards to over 900,000. Whether this new figure understates, overstates or correctly predicts UK population growth is a matter for debate.
The rate of inflow has apparently slowed a little in the year ending June 2024 to 728,000. But perhaps these figures will also be revised before too long.
Of course, it’s the sheer quantum of these numbers that grabs the headlines and forms the framework of public debate. But I’m not sure these eye-watering numbers really encapsulate the true scale of the policy challenge.
I used to take a wildly liberal view of immigration. As a convinced free trader, I wanted goods and services to flow easily around the globe without tariffs or protectionist regulatory barriers. If I was wishing to grant that freedom to goods and services, why not also accord it to human beings?
The problem obviously comes when you factor in the welfare state. Generally speaking, goods and services arrive from abroad without any major associated costs. People do not. So, for as long as we maintain a generous welfare state, humans come with a cost which is adjacent to, but distinct from, their contribution to the private sector.
I have started to think of the UK more as a club than a mere landmass. Clubs tend to have membership fees and they also have rules. To acquire and retain membership, you need to pay the former and abide by the latter. In broad terms, we should think about immigration in the same way. A financial contribution is a prerequisite, but you also need to “fit in”. Fitting in is more nebulous, less easily measured, but that doesn’t make it unimportant.
I was therefore pleased to hear Kemi’s intervention in the debate this week (watch here) where she described our country as a home not a hotel. She also took the important step of conceding that the Conservatives royally screwed up on the immigration issue over our fourteen years in office (although she obviously didn’t use quite those words!).
Her approach to rebuilding the Conservative Party has been consistent with her leadership campaign – she is attempting to sketch out a broad vision and take time before committing to specific policies. She has said she wants a review of our membership of ECHR but she isn’t necessarily committed to leaving it, for example.
This approach makes a great deal of sense. Bombarding the electorate with a swathe of “retail offers” now is unlikely to garner much support or attention. The Conservative Party needs to start by winning back the right even to be listened to. Also, we shouldn’t believe we can easily find a few silver bullets that double up as catchy campaign slogans. I favour leaving the ECHR, but I consider that a helpful step in addressing immigration policy, not a full solution.
However, the downside of Kemi’s methodical approach – from the narrow perspective of the electoral interests of the Conservative Party - is that Reform UK is already hitting the ground running with some crystal-clear messages around immigration, carbon net zero and the economy. Reform’s momentum was underscored not just by Andrea Jenkyns becoming their 100,000th member this week but by their continuing uptick in the vote and their ability to both capture and reflect the public mood.
One recent opinion poll this week put the Conservatives on 27% and Reform on 22%. That indicates to me that at some time and in some way, we are going to have to find a way to reunite the centre-right if we are determined to remove this wretched Labour government from office at the earliest possible opportunity.
You can find out what our Opinion Panel members think of uniting the right, immigration and more in our latest survey results here. My thanks to the hundreds of those who contributed.
Keep the flag of freedom flying.