In his latest column, Mark Littlewood, Director of Popular Conservatism, argues that given the new political compass which now prevails in Britain, both Labour and the Conservatives face the same basic choice – change or die.

The economic historian, Steve Davies, has been positing for some years now that the UK is going through a political realignment – the sort of overhaul that only happens once in every two or three generations. You can find out more here or buy his book here.

His thesis is compelling. The basic idea that is that people are divided into political tribes across two axes. There tends to be a dominant axis and a secondary, but still important, axis.

Until fairly recently, the dominant dividing line was economics. Those on the so-called Right favoured relatively low taxes, limited government spending and a free market economy. Those on the Left supported high levels of redistribution, more government intervention in the economy and a generally active state.

The secondary division was on social and personal freedoms. Should we allow gay marriage? Should the state ban adverts for cigarettes and alcohol? Might you support tougher prison sentences or the return of national service? Should the state support the traditional model of the nuclear family or take no view on the matter?

You can see where you fit on the old political compass here.

The compass obviously splits people into four tribes – but two of the tribes tend to be dominant. These tribes therefore tend to form the main two political parties and they try to hoover up votes from the less populated quadrants - as well as from those who are somewhere close to the centre of the grid - in order to win elections.

Across the West, at least until very recently, this has tended to mean there has been a major pro-capitalist, socially conservative party (the Tories, the US Republicans, the French Gaullists, the German Christian Democrats) battling it out with a liberal-leaning, social democratic party (Labour, the US Democrats, the French Socialists, the German SPD). Other parties will appear somewhere on the radar, but these two mighty blocs have been the dominant forces.

In Davies’ view the two axes which define the tribes have now changed. Economics remains important – but is now very much the secondary consideration. The main axis is now around identity and nationhood.

Do you see yourself as British or as a citizen of the world? Do you tend to welcome global institutions as a way to bring humanity together or do you consider them generally to undermine national sovereignty and democracy? Do you believe there are major defining differences between nations and cultures or do you feel that we are all pretty much the same?

The Brexit referendum was a reflection of this new dominant axis – as are contemporary debates around immigration, the international rule of law and the position of Islam in modern society.

When the axes which define the major political tribes change, the big political parties find they need to radically reinvent themselves or else wither away. The things that used to hold them together are simply no longer the salient issues of the day.

Oftentimes, parties reconfigure themselves to reflect the new prevailing political divisions. The US Republicans are a completely different beast under Donald Trump compared with the Bush-Cheney version (so much so, that Dick Cheney went so far as to endorse Kamala Harris last year).

Sometimes however, major political parties find it impossible to reposition themselves. The Liberal Party dominated much of nineteenth century British politics but by the 1930s it had become politically irrelevant. Its coalition – or tribe – had been held together by support for free trade, extending the voting franchise to include the emerging middle class and a commitment to empire. When the ground beneath them began to shift – to questions such as whether we should have conscription to fight a war or whether we should begin establishing a welfare state – they fractured, split and fell away.

The challenges facing both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party today are just as significant as those that led to the collapse of the Liberals.

Back in the 1950s, Labour and the Tories would typically command over 90% of the vote between them in general elections. In the 2024 election this fell to just 57%. According to today’s opinion polls, the figure is now below 40%.

The tectonic plates of British politics have shifted.

A rebranding, refresh or simply an update of your logo might be sufficient to resuscitate your political party in predictable, stable times. But when a major realignment of public opinion occurs, that is a surefire route to oblivion.

Given the new political compass which now prevails in Britain, both Labour and the Conservatives face the same basic choice – change or die.

Keep the flag of freedom flying.